By TOM KELLY
Editor and Publisher

Forests of the American South - which produce more timber products than any other country in the world - will remain stable over the next 40 years, as timber production expands without depleting forest inventories below current levels, according to the long-awaited Southern Forest Resource Assessment (SFRA) released November 29 by the U.S. Forest Service.

Several factors are predicted to impact the makeup of the Southern forest - with continuing urban development named as the most significant force affecting forest ecosystems. Loss of forest land to urban sprawl is expected to be offset by the conversion of agricultural land to timber plantation in much of the South, especially in the Gulf Coast states.

The SFRA is the result of a two-year study launched in April, 1999, by a team of more than 25 scientists from the U.S. Forest Service, Environmental Protection Agency, Tennessee Valley Authority, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and several state universities and forest organizations, under the direction of the USDA Forest Service Southern Research Station and Southern Region headquarters in Atlanta, Georgia.

A summary of the heavily scientific report, issued by David N. Wear of the USDA Forest Service at Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, and John G. Greis, USDA Forest Service, Atlanta, says "Between 1953 and 1997, the South's timber production more than doubled, its share of the U.S. production increased from 41 to 58 percent, and its share of world production increased from 6.3 percent to 15.8 percent. The region now produces more timber than any other country in the world."

Says the SFRA, "Timber market models forecast that timber production in the United States will increase by about a third between 1995 and 2040. Nearly all this growth will come from the South, where production is forecast to increase 56 percent for softwoods, and 47 percent for hardwoods."

Commenting on the report, Co-leader David Wear said, "We studied pressures being placed on Southern forests, and forecast what we expect to occur in the future. We examined all major forces of change, from timber and land markets to socio-economic forces, insects and diseases, climatic changes, and other potential threats. It appears that population growth and urbanization are the most significant challenges we face in sustaining forests.

Between 1992 and 2020, about six percent of the South's forests could be lost to urban uses, with largest losses occurring in the Piedmont and Coastal Plains of the East Coast, Wear said. The effects of urban and suburban areas extend far beyond city limits, resulting in wildlife habitat fragmentation, a scarcity of forest benefits such as recreation opportunities, and limitations on management options necessary to keep forests healthy.

Said co-leader John Greis, "For the first time, we have a study that presents an accurate, objective picture of the status of Southern forests. This is a science-based assessment, and we've attempted to employ the best data and information available."

Wear said, "Continued sustainability of Southern forests will largely rest with the decisions of private landowners. This assessment provides the necessary information in an understandable form so that landowners and public policy makers can better understand Southern forests, their condition, and how management decisions affect them."

Excerpted below are key statements from the SFRA, from the report's Executive Summary.

From 1700 to 1930, land clearing for agriculture and timber production completely restructured Southern ecosystems. Clearing for agriculture greatly diminished the area of forested wetlands, especially in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley. Agricultural uses reached their zenith in the late 19th century. Wholesale land abandonment then set the stage for a long period of forest reestablishment and growth.

Since the 1940s, there has been little net change in forest area in the South, and current forest area is 214 millon acres, about 91 percent of that recorded in 1907. However, there have been large offsetting changes: forest has been converted to urban and agriculture in some places and agricultural land has been converted to forest in others.

Forecasting models indicate that 12 million forest acres will be lost to urbanization between 1992 and 2020. An additional 19 million acres are forecast to be developed between 2020 and 2040. Forecasts also indicate conversion of 10 million acres from agricultural land to forest between 1992 and 2020, and another 15 million acres by 2040. Most forest loss is expected to be concentrated in the eastern part of the region, with forest gains concentrated in the west.

The South produces a great variety of timber products, including softwood sawlogs (28 percent), softwood pulpwood (25 percent), and hardwood pulpwood (16 percent. Since 1953, hardwood pulpwood has experienced the greatest increase in product share, growing from three to 16 percent of output.

Timber market models forecast that timber production in the United States will increase by about a third between 1992 and 2040. Nearly all of this growth will come from the South, where production is forecast to increase 56 percent for softwoods and 47 percent for hardwoods.

Funding of forest incentives is likely to vary depending on shifts in state and federal priorities. The expansion of local regulations appears to be closely linked to population growth and urbanization. The number of regulations affecting forest treatment will likely continue to expand in high growth areas.

Southern Pine Beetle is forecast to continue to cause substantial economic damage and ecological change in the South, especially on heavily stocked nonindustrial private forests and aging public forests. Multiple exotic diseases and insects affecting hardwoods will continue to spread from northern areas.

Ozone pollution is forecast to increase anywhere from 20 to 50 percent between 1990 and 2050, and growth reductions in southern pines are expected as a result.

Population of the South has grown at a faster rate than national averages. As a result the share of the U.S. population residing in the South has increased to more than 32 percent. Population is forecast to continue growing in absolute terms and relative to the United States as a whole, putting increasing pressure on forests, especially in urbanizing areas.

In 1997, timber harvests led to more than 700,000 jobs in wood products sector and more than $118 billion in total industry output. Total economic impacts of these activities were about 2.2 million jobs (5.5 percent) and $251 billion of total industry output (7.5 percent). Timber production percentages are forecast to increase the most northward and westward from the traditional production core of the South - Tennessee, North Carolina, Arkansas, and western Virginia. Increases in timber harvests are not expected to deplete inventories, but there is considerable variability among states and forest types. Softwood inventories are forecast to increase at a gradual rate between 1995 and 2040. Hardwood inventories are forecast to expand between 1995 and 2020, but will then fall slightly between 2025 and 2040. This reflects forecasts that show hardwood removals exceeding growth regionally by about 2025, sooner in some states.

Given current land ownership patterns, there appears to be limited capacity to expand forest-based recreation opportunities in the South. Recreation activities on public land are expected to be increasingly congested, and competition among various recreation groups will increaser.

The South has more than 214 million acres of forest land, 60 percent of the total in 1630, and 91 percent of the total in 1907. Forest area has been relatively stable since the 1970s. Eleven percent of timberland (21.4 million acres) is managed by various government agencies. The remaining 89 percent is privately owned. Twenty two percent of private timberland is owned by forest industry, 21 percent by farmers, 12 percent by other companies, and 45 percent by other individuals.

Ownership is changing, with a decrease in forest industry ownership between the 1980s and 1990s, and an increase in other corporate owners, including timber investment management organizations.

Total area of forest land is forecast to decline by only two percent between 1995 and 2040. Early results from the most recent forest inventories indicate that decreases in forest industry ownership are continuing.

The area of timberland owned by forest industry decreased by about a million acres between the 1980s and 1990s. However, this was more than offset by a 4.1 million acre increase in ownership by other corporations. Many of these corporate owners - including Timber Investment Management Corporations (TIMOs) practice a forest management style similar to forest industry, so that the net environmental and timber supply implications . . . may be minimal. Forest industry ownership shifted westward during the period, with substantial reductions in Florida (681,000 acres) and Georgia (583,000 acres), accompanied by increases in Alabama (591,000 acres), Arkansas (240,000 acres), and Mississippi (209,000 acres).

The most substantial reduction in forest ownership since the 1950s has been in the farmer-owner category. The amount of timberland held by farmers has declined from 88 million to 35 million acres. Private individuals who do not farm hold an increasing share.

Between 1978 and 1993 the number of forest landowners increased by 12 percent in the South and stood at 4.9 million in 1993. Of these, 84 percent owned tracts smaller than 50 acres. Indications are that this trend continued through the 1990s. The implication is that an increasing share of southern forests is held in smaller tracts.

Intensive management has increased Southern timber yields. High intensity management can increase yields by 65 percent over standard site preparation and planting, and by more than 100 percent over naturally regenerated forests.
The area of pine plantations is forecast to increase by 67 percent to 54 million acres in 2040. Areas of all other forest types are expected to decline at gradual rates over this period. Forests of all types will be lost to urban uses and gains in planted pines will come mainly from planting agricultural fields.

Forecasts indicate that softwood growth will overtake and exceed removals by a slight margin in the next few years. As a result, softwood inventories are forecast to increase steadily between 1995 and 2040. Hardwood removals are forecast to exceed growth by about 2025.

About 30 percent of the South has relatively good water quality, 36 percent has moderate water quality problems, and 15 percent has serious water quality problems. Leading causes of water quality impairment has been siltation, pathogens, and nutrients. Of the 11 major sources of water quality impairment, agriculture and urbanization have ranked highest, with silviculture ranking next to last. When properly implemented, best management practices (BMPs) are effective in controlling non-point source pollution from silvicultural activities. Twelve of the 13 states have monitored BMP compliance and reported results.

As timber production increases in the South, effective BMP implementation will remain crucial for protecting water quality.

Largest area of potential forest gains is on the Lower Gulf Coastal Plain and in large portions of Arkansas, Mississippi, and Louisiana.

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